Positive EV Betting Explained: How Smart Bettors Win Long-Term

If you’ve ever wondered how professional bettors make money consistently while most casual bettors lose, the answer usually comes down to one concept:

Positive Expected Value betting, commonly called +EV betting.

This strategy isn’t about predicting winners perfectly, hitting huge parlays, or getting lucky. Instead, it’s about math, probability, and discipline. In this article, we’ll break down exactly how positive EV betting works, why it’s profitable over time, and how you can apply it yourself.

What Is Positive EV Betting?

Expected Value (EV) is a mathematical concept that tells you how much you can expect to win or lose on average per bet if you were to place that same bet many times.

In sports betting:

• Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable in the long run

• Negative EV (-EV) means the bet will lose money over time

The key idea is simple:

If the odds offered by a sportsbook are better than the true probability of an event happening, the bet has positive expected value.

You’re not betting on what you think will happen — you’re betting when the price is wrong.

Why Most Sports Bets Are Negative EV

Sportsbooks build a profit margin (called the vig or juice) into their odds. Because of this:

• Betting randomly = guaranteed losses over time

• Parlays = even worse EV

• Betting based on emotions or fandom = -EV

For example, a coin flip is a 50/50 event. Fair odds would be +100 / -100.
But sportsbooks might offer -110 on both sides.

That difference ensures the bettor loses money long-term unless they find mispriced lines.

How Positive EV Betting Works

Positive EV betting focuses on finding mispriced odds — situations where the sportsbook underestimates the true probability of an outcome.

The formula for Expected Value is:

EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won) − (Probability of Losing × Amount Risked)

If the result is greater than zero, the bet is +EV.

Example 1: Simple Positive EV Bet

Let’s say a basketball team realistically has a 60% chance to win a game.

The fair odds for a 60% probability are approximately:

• -150

But a sportsbook mistakenly offers:

• -110

Now let’s calculate EV.

• Bet: $100

• Win profit at -110: $90.91

• Win probability: 60%

• Loss probability: 40%

EV = (0.60 × 90.91) − (0.40 × 100)
EV = 54.55 − 40
EV = +$14.55

That means:

On average, you make $14.55 per $100 bet over the long run.

That is a massive edge.

Example 2: Underdog With Positive EV

Positive EV betting isn’t just about favorites.

Let’s say a soccer underdog realistically wins 30% of the time.

Fair odds for 30%:

• +233

A sportsbook offers:

• +300

You bet $100.

• Win profit: $300

• Win probability: 30%

• Loss probability: 70%

EV = (0.30 × 300) − (0.70 × 100)
EV = 90 − 70
EV = +$20

Even though the team loses most of the time, this bet is very profitable long-term.

Why +EV Betting Doesn’t Win Every Time

This is critical to understand:

Positive EV does not mean guaranteed wins.

You can:

• Lose 5, 10, or even 20 bets in a row

• Have losing days or weeks

• Still be making the correct decisions

+EV betting works over large sample sizes, not short streaks.

This is why bankroll management and emotional control are essential.

The Law of Large Numbers

The reason +EV betting works is due to the law of large numbers.

Over time:

• Actual results move closer to expected results

• Edges compound

• Variance smooths out

Think of it like owning a casino. Casinos don’t win every night — but they always win long-term because every game has positive EV for the house.

+EV bettors are doing the same thing, just on the opposite side.

Common Ways Bettors Find Positive EV Bets

Here are the most common methods:

1. Line Shopping

Different sportsbooks offer different odds. Finding the best price can turn a neutral bet into a +EV one.

2. Market Inefficiencies

Smaller leagues, niche player props, and early lines are often mispriced.

3. Sharp vs Soft Books

Some sportsbooks react slower to sharp money, creating temporary value.

4. Betting Tools and Models

Many +EV bettors use:

• Statistical models

• Fair odds calculators

• EV scanners

These help estimate true probabilities more accurately.

Bankroll Management: The Key to Survival

Even with +EV bets, poor bankroll management can ruin you.

General guidelines:

• Bet 1–3% of bankroll per wager

• Avoid chasing losses

• Never go all-in

• Accept variance as part of the process

Many professionals also use Kelly Criterion (or fractional Kelly) to size bets based on edge.

Example 3: Long-Term Impact of +EV Betting

Imagine you place:

• 1,000 bets

• $100 per bet

• Average EV = +5%

Expected profit:

$100 × 1,000 × 0.05 = $5,000

You won’t make $5,000 in a straight line — but mathematically, that edge will assert itself over time.

Myths About Positive EV Betting

Myth 1: You need insider information
False. You need better probabilities than the sportsbook.

Myth 2: It’s gambling
Casual betting is gambling. +EV betting is closer to investing with variance.

Myth 3: You must win most of your bets
False. Many profitable bettors win only 45–55% of the time.

Final Thoughts: Why Positive EV Betting Works

Positive EV betting works because it:

• Exploits incorrect pricing

• Uses math instead of emotion

• Focuses on long-term outcomes

• Treats betting like a numbers game

If you consistently place bets where the true odds are better than the sportsbook odds, you are doing exactly what successful bettors — and casinos — have done for decades.

Winning today is nice.
Winning over 1,000 bets is what matters.

That’s the power of positive EV betting.